Fouro's Reverse Crystal Ball™ by Whammo^®: 10-29-03

Will the man who won the first Gulf War, be the man who "lost" the second?

Machines don't fight wars. Terrain doesn't fight wars. Humans fight wars. You must get into the mind of humans. That's where the battles are won.

-Col John Boyd

The onset of Ramadan, noted by all the big bangs in Baghdad, all the "We're winning!", "Are we winning?", "What is winning?" and all the shouts of anguish out in blogville from both sides of the political spectrum got me thinking.

My feelings about the current situation (October, 2003) don't stem from who I voted for but from how I regard the quality of the insight, finesse and effort behind the operation, political and military. I posted earlier on the man listed above, but on reflection, it was insufficient. Col. John Boyd, USAF (Ret) 1927-1997, the progenitor of today's military strategic base model, Observe, Orient, Decide, Act (OODA), was a passionate man, a maverick. He's one element of the story we're watching unfold, but true to his doctrine of 4th Generation Warfare, there are many cross-disciplinary aspects to what most perceive as a very precarious situation. It has all the classic elements of a good story: National alarm, the promise of better things to come, Hubris, colorful personalities, explosions and international intrigue. Very Hollywood. And that in itself is part of the dilemma. This is a sequel. And like many sequels, it unnecessarily complicates motives, plot, and character assumptions in order to justify its reason for being. The saying goes you can "never dip your toe in the same river twice."

I would add a corrolary: Sometimes you use the tool, sometimes the tool uses you.

OODA, (Go here for a brief flash simulation) and Col. John Boyd, deserve much of the credit for how successfully we fight recent wars: how, in historical terms, casualties have become less wholesale and savagely indisciminate, and how quickly enemies fold, thus "ending" the war sooner. OODA made a believer out of Dick Cheney, then Secretary of Defense, during the first Gulf War. Likewise, Donald Rumsfeld, has been a student.

I'm a believer too, within limits. And with some very real caveats. OODA and it's broader view can be like strategic black magic. For some, it feels like a veil has been lifted. Because of its sweep, it elevates previously ignored nuances to burning bush revelations of possible advantage. Also notable is it can legitimize "gut" instinct. A sixth sense you perhaps couldn't ennunciate, can take on the aura of operational, tool-derived rational respectability. While clearing away the smoke and mirrors for your side is its intent Militarily, sowing confusion and panic in the enemy is also a by-product of OODA. "Shock and Awe" is one of it's derivations. It's a powerful tool, but, to follow the metaphor, "magic" doesn't make you omnipotent or infallible. OODA can give you that sense if your motives are shall we say, less than forthright.

On the subject of belief, as a strategist, I also believe in simple explanations, derived from a fuller understanding of human motives, stripped of all the dutiful crosstalk. Simple as in fundamental, not simplistic. In many cases, complexity comes from allowing your input to exceed your expectation. That is, complexity is often labeled such, not because there is too much of some thing, but because there is more of something than you expected or are willing to entertain. OODA fixes this to some degree militarily, but, politically and culturally, the United States has had no such simultaneous mind-shift and no political John Boyds have appeared. Once again, our tools and our technological capability have exceeded our moral understanding. We are cavemen wielding a light saber. This I think, is the root of what we face in our current approach to terror and Iraq. More to come...

"In war, it is of supreme importance to attack your
opponent's Strategy. The next best thing is to attack your opponent's
Alliances. Next after that is to attack your opponent's Armies. The
worst thing is to attack your opponent's Cities."

Sun Tzu

[updated from 10-29-03 in a few places]

The "More to come" above references a follow on post to this 10-28-03 piece on George Lakoff 's political framing ideas. I never published that Part II. Given the last years events and how this election is playing out, I regret that. I'll put it up later today as a follow on to the above.