Introducing: Dan Drezner as Gypsy Rose Lee

Having spilled my guts all over this blog more than a few times, I'm still not the least bit bashful to say Dan Drezner's slow-motion fan dance of "come-hither and seduce me to vote Kerry" posts makes me wanna find a whiffle bat. Some praise him for thinking out loud. I wanna report him for public indecency, or, at least, very bad vamping....

Some commenters have suggested that Bush secretly recognizes that mistakes have been made, and there will be changes after the election. I'm glad they're confident of that -- this David Sanger story in Sunday's NYT makes it clear that even insiders aren't sure about this:

"Honestly, I can make a more reliable prediction about what Kerry's foreign policy would look like than I can about our own,'' said one senior American diplomat who has spent considerable time with President Bush over the past three years. "I could argue that you'll see Dick Cheney's revenge, or that the President will determine that the hawks got him in deep, deep trouble, and he'd better turn this around.''

So where am I now? I'm unpersuaded by arguments saying that Bush's foreign policy has been a greater success than commonly thought, and I'm not convinced that he would ever be able to recognize the need for policy change.

However, the responses to the previous post have fed my doubts about Kerry's bad foreign policy instincts -- enough to slightly lower my probability of voting for Kerry to 70%. So it's now up to Kerry's supporters to make their case -- how can I trust that John Kerry gets the post-9/11 world? How can I be sure that Kerry's policymaking process will be sufficiently good so as to overwhelm Kerry's instinctual miscues?

That's not serious inquiry, it's familial enabling and wobbliness--the mark of someone unable to face the pure academic truth of their untenable position. The fan Drezner's blowing kisses from behind is made of ostrich feathers.

1. Post-war global power-shift concentrated to the US combined with WMD proliferation and the events of 9/11 were a perfect storm of foreign policy possibility. Bush screwed the pooch--but it's a screwing Kerry can make right. (Details below.)

2. Just to clarify point #1 above: BUSH DOESN'T GET THE POST-9/11 WORLD. At least, he doesn't get it right. (Details below.)

3. Using the above administration official's quote, Drezner asks, answers, then asks again (because he doesn't like the answer), how Kerry's process orientation beats Bush's? Again, using the quote: Kerry demonstrates an actual familiarty with decision-making as a process; one needing something beyond a divining rod. (Varied input, cross-referencing, feedback loops, awareness of stovepipe effects, etc. Details below.)

There's lots more junk Drezner dangles about domestic policy and whatnot: I respect Bob Rubin, and Dick Holbrooke, etc--but what if Kerry doesn't use those guys? Hmmmm. Dan has two choices of life preserver--one in flames, one serviceable--and he's checking the tag on the useful one, worried it might have been made with union labor.

POINT 1: Muscular common sense. What was [and is still] needed is a highly necessary and, conveniently, highly visible rebuild of US forces to meet the demands of assymmetrical threats--guerillas, insurgency, terrorism, middle east foment. Threats that were not news on September 10th. While commencing your highly visible build-up, you leverage post 9-11 (good)will by firmly planting both feet in the Middle East--one in the Mediterranean, one in the Gulf--and saying:

Enough. Your problem is now our Dead. Time to fix or time to fight–fight us. These are our bombs, planes and tanks; and these, these over here are our bonds, bricklayers and business professors. You choose. We're here to help, but we're done with half measures, and you will fix this. Take what you admire, leave what you don't, keep your autonomy. Think about it. Hard. If you say no, you will not like the alternative.

End the press conference, cue the airlift/sealift, alert pre-positioning. And wait for the phones to ring. And ring they would. And not a soul would have blamed us. Now, that is what Bush should have done. Addressed to the whole Middle East--yes, even the bit with names like Haifa and Tel Aviv.

Fantasy? Not at all. You see, all the Realpolitik once had its place, but it is true, 9-11 changed everything. The main thing it changed was the need for bullshit and parlor language in the realm of Middle East diplomacy. (You certainly can't argue that that suggestion is "risky" and "just not done" on the world stage, at least, you can't given the quixotic things done in America's name over the last 3+ years by the "we create our own reality administration.) Ipso facto, rules were meant to be broken, and usually are where things actually get done. I've posted here before [1, 2, 3, 4] that Bush would be being measured for Mt. Rushmore right about now, had he acted appropriate to the magnitude of the situation--with a clearer understanding of the global and tribal metaphorical GASP that he had at his command. A large measure. A simply understood statement of fact: enough is enough. Olive branches in one claw, arrows in the other. Hell, it's our logo and our brand. There is no false advertising in the claim, no surprise at it's clarity regardless of whence you came. Yet Bush is all mexed missage R-Complex. Fight or Fight [sic] on Iraq; Fight then Flee on Chinese intercepts of US recon planes over international waters, on steel tariffs, on NCLB, on Drug Benefits, on Fiscal policy, on everything. Ergo: Bush fucks up, regularly; he didn't and doesn't get the pattern language manifest in the War on Terror. Kerry gets exactly the limbic nature of the current situation and can actually explain it, full well knowing we, and they, must climb higher up the cortical and gonadal chain for practicable resolution, although Bush has probably squandered the above profound Middle East Colossus opportunity. Let us hope not.

Dan, come on. Cleanup's a bitch. And you can't complain about the mess, nor keep whining that you'd really really like to fix it, using your ideas and your words, and that you'd feel so much better about your worldview and your past declarations if you could fix it, but that, hey, you're just not sure how. We'll rub your shoulders later. Meantime, Kerry's got to make some plane reservations to go smooth things over with some very anxious and very useful old friends.

POINT 2: Forget point 2. There's no need. Keep fanning, Dan. And vote your conscience. See ya November 3.