Rita: Cat 5, headed for Petro-chemical alley.

National Hurricane Center

HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED
CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS OF 165 MPH. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 4 PM CDT ADVISORY.

FORECASTER AVILA

Ahh jeez.

If N.O. was Toxic soup, this has the potential to be Beelzebub's Bouillabaise...

Via The oil drum

There's a lot...a whole lot...of petrochemical refining around Freeport, the upper part of Galveston/Trinity Bay (LaPorte, Texas City, Pasadena, Baytown), and east toward Sabine/Port Arthur. Everything from oil refining, to plastics (polyethylene, polypropylene, styrene), butane, etc. are produced in the region. No less than 25 years ago Port Arthur refined 1/4th of the nation's gasoline...though that's down percentage wise now because we rely on so much offshore refining and ship it in and pipe it to various locales. Most every refinery is built right along the ship channel of each region, and most will get some flooding, if not a lot of flooding. There are a ton of platforms that surround the area, and one of the SPRs is located between Port Arthur and Galveston, right on the coast.

One of the biggest issues is shipping in and out of ports and down the Intracoastal Canal. Shipping terminal damage will reduce the amount of offshore product that can be shipped. Sargent, Texas...right on the Brazoria/Matagorda county line right on the beach, is the place where the IC comes closest to the GOM and Atlantic (there the IC's south shoreline is about 200 yds. from the GOM at mean tide). The IC is heavily traveled with barge and petroleum shipments up and down the Texas coast (it's not at all uncommon to go over any IC bridge and see no less than 9 tugs w/ 2 or more barges within seeing distance). That part of the IC will definitely breach and silt in with the storm, and it will take weeks, if not months, to dredge it again to allow barge traffic in and out.

One other factor to consider is that one of the nation's largest nuclear power plants is located in Bay City, right south of Freeport...and right up the predicted poopshoot (technical term, really) for Rita.

This is NOT at all going to be pretty on an economic and...just as important...an ecological scale, either. The price of gas, plastics, energy, and seafood is all going to skyrocket. Our not saving for a rainy day is now going to come home to roost.

What kind of ingredients for the stew? Between Galveston and Corpus, including the above mentioned Intracostal Canal, you'll find...

Facility	Owner	City	Max_Wind	Max_Water	Damage	Material	Max_Amount (lbs)
EASTEX FOREST PRODS.		HOUSTON	29.2m/s ( 56.6kts)	0.0m ( 0.0ft)	1.0%	CHROMIUM COMPOUNDS(EXCEPT CHROMITE ORE M	10 thou to 100 thou
CHEM ONE LTD.	CHEM ONE LTD.	HOUSTON	31.8m/s ( 61.6kts)	0.0m ( 0.0ft)	1.8%	MANGANESE COMPOUNDS	1 to 10 million
BRENNTAG SOUTHWEST INC HOUSTON	BRENNTAG	HOUSTON	34.9m/s ( 67.7kts)	0.0m ( 0.0ft)	3.2%	METHANOL	10 thou to 100 thou
BRENNTAG SOUTHWEST INC HOUSTON	BRENNTAG	HOUSTON	34.9m/s ( 67.7kts)	0.0m ( 0.0ft)	3.2%	TOLUENE	10 thou to 100 thou
BRENNTAG SOUTHWEST INC HOUSTON	BRENNTAG	HOUSTON	34.9m/s ( 67.7kts)	0.0m ( 0.0ft)	3.2%	XYLENE (MIXED ISOMERS)	10 thou to 100 thou
BRENNTAG SOUTHWEST INC HOUSTON	BRENNTAG	HOUSTON	34.9m/s ( 67.7kts)	0.0m ( 0.0ft)	3.2%	ETHYLENE GLYCOL	10 thou to 100 thou
ATOFINA PETROCHEMICALS INC	ATOFINA PETROCHEMICALS INC	LA PORTE	29.5m/s ( 57.3kts)	0.0m ( 0.0ft)	1.1%	DICHLOROMETHANE	100-1000
ATOFINA PETROCHEMICALS INC	ATOFINA PETROCHEMICALS INC	LA PORTE	29.5m/s ( 57.3kts)	0.0m ( 0.0ft)	1.1%	ETHYLENE	10 thou to 100 thou
ATOFINA PETROCHEMICALS INC	ATOFINA PETROCHEMICALS INC	LA PORTE	29.5m/s ( 57.3kts)	0.0m ( 0.0ft)	1.1%	N-HEXANE

The list goes on for 600 or so entries. The percentages are estimates of damage using low range projections, based on algorithms designed for insurance loss estimation. Many of the sites are self-reporting if my undestanding of the process is correct, and therefore, suspect past a certain point due to potential negligence claims/liability exposure.

The runoff from this goop added to New Orleans' goop will have a dilatory effect on plankton and food chain systems in the gulf. The result will be lower oxygen levels, higher water-bound CO2 and an increase in algae choking off further O2. That translates into a vicious cycle of an already overheated GOM getting hotter, providing only more warm water to feed tropical storms the energy they need to rise to Hurricane status, and ever more quickly. The gulf further becomes both crucible and slingshot aimed at the southern states and Mexico. Time to start thinking about Category-6 for the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

This is the kind of stuff that matters for natonal security and business continuity, whether attended to by mayors, governors, congress, chief executives or the exective branch. A mess in the making compounding the the one already made further up the coast. And where has our decision-making energy been for 15 years? Terri Schiavo, 10 Commandments, prayer in school, corporate anorexia, tax cuts, blowjobs, travelgate, fabricating culture wars, arguing over how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.

We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time.

-- T. S. Eliot

Cross your fingers, but prepare for the worst. And yes, we have family in Rockport.