Dispatches from the Tea Leaves Dept.

You're too kind to suffer all the pontificating and know-it-all-ism that happens around here, so thanks. As some small indicator of the possible worth of the time you've invested....

Oct 29, 2004

...If I was George Bush, I wouldn't want a second term. It will destroy the viability of a Republican President, and possibly his party, for 20 years. Too bad. And ironic. In running away from his daddy's shadow, he severed contact with the one man who perhaps could have saved him from himself.

Oct 4, 2004

...The saying goes, "Seeing isn't believing. We only see what we already believe." The signals have always been there, but Thursday night, because it was so patently and authentically jarring, pried open a few eyes. Yes, character does matter. But we sometimes do a lousy job of divining what constitutes character; we get played if we're not careful and not cognizant of how our need for group identity can trick us. As a result, we're shocked when our leaders are "defrocked."

To me, there's a very relevant point there for all of us, business and political. For reasons too deep to get into here, leaders fall into a false trap of perfectibility and infallibility--one that we, in our sometimes roles as followers/workers/voters feed and enable. It's a mirage born of a PR ruse that fights reality but feeds weaker leadership constitutions. That reality is this: Leading is more about knowing which questions to ask, rather than having the answers already. The choices are binary. Certitude or Adaptability? Fear or Hope?

We know where Darwin stood on the former choices. Time will tell where American voters stand on the latter.

Oct 27, 2003

...It sucks to be you (me, anybody) when you're wrong. It's no party even when you're mildly uncertain. But that's nothing compared to the dripping, white knuckled fear that comes from wondering if others can see you sweating. And from that further, self-imposed fear that you'll be revealed a simpleton or a blind zealot. I really believe this, because I see it 9 to 5 almost daily, usually in cases that are nano-scale trivial compared with the stakes McCain's talking about.

I grew up under a parental neutron bomb that used to stop us kids dead in our tracks when we'd evade, dissemble or just plain lie to avoid a preponderance of some fact: Once an accident, twice a coincidence, three times a pattern. I'm old enough that seeing otherwise sensible individuals suspend their healthy skepticism once they've tipped toward an individual or group or idea doesn't surprise me anymore. It's simple self- and self-image preservation. But the risk and the odds that they're willing to stay pat on, now that never ceases to amaze.

October 28, 2004 - Still waiting on some of these...

The things we will learn in the next 6-18 months

• How much Iraqi looted explosives made it to Chechnya and Palestine and small Mediterranean ports.
• How many permanent Bases we have built in the western desert of Iraq and their unfavorable lease condtions.
• What Paul Bremer, Jay Garner and Colin Powell really thought of Operation Iraqi Freedom.
• What was left out of the Taguba Report on Abu Ghraib, and where there 2, 3 or 4 more "Abu Ghraibs"?
• What Donald Rumsfeld thinks of George Bush.
• How "cordial" were Cheney's 3 or 4 visits to Langley and what resulted.
• What did NSC staffers really think about Condoleeza Rice.
• Who leaked Valerie Plame's CIA NOC status to Robert Novak.
• Where all that missing walking-around/greasing-Iraqi-skids money for occupation forces went.
• What the EPA didn't tell us in the WTC environmental impact study.
• What the Mediare Prescription Drug Bill really costs.
• Who was at the Bush Administration's secret energy policy meetings conducted by Cheney and what did they talk about.
• How much the Pentagon was undercounting dead and wounded--ours and theirs.
• What really happened and what did we give away to have our Navy Recon plane and crew released by the Chinese in early 2001.
• How much well-vetted intel passed through NSC, State and DoD about North Korea's fast-tracking of plutonium conversion beginning mid- to late-2001.
• How deeply was Ahmed Chalabi aligned with Iran's Intelligence Services and how obvious, in hindsight, was it?
• How many times Tony Blair had to talk George Bush down off the ledge.
• How much DoD money was given to Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkey, Jordan, Syria
• How deeply known, and how high, was the WMD McGuffin known as such and, how surprisingly early.

and last but not least:

• How many of Bush's notable business and political supporters were "truly and deeply" concerned about his volatile imbalances and decision-making, but were "afraid to say anything."

What am I forgetting?

Oh yeah, where was that damn undisclosed location?

Jan 23, 2005

...This ambition, his ambition, their ambition, is a destructive, self-interested and myopic one. It is theirs, not mine. And, I suspect if many gave it deeper thought, they'd reach the same conclusion. But paying attention or not, its vortex will make large casualties of innocent bystanders--already has, in lives and national reputation and opportunity. Fear of irrelevance, fear of failure, mirrored in Prideful certitude does that to some, high and low, Turbaned or not. It separates how from why, depending on whatever needs justifying at the moment. Meaning becomes unmoored from act. Self-image trumps true self-interest. Fear of uncertainty, suspicion of of patience and calm confidence makes fools of many smart people, and fills SEC dockets, newspaper headlines. Or cemetaries.

So here's where Bush's legacy-factor is the slingshot to Neocon willfulness: More, faster, now! Raging and reactive narcissism. That's it. That's all. Foreign policy is the excuse and the device. Social Security Crisis? [Supreme Court?] Fuhgeddaboudit. Hearts and minds are beside the point. You are the tools, or the obstacle.

Thanks for reading.