Calling Bob Cialdini -- Stat

Umm, in the previous post, you might recall "you have to have... the courage not to whiff wholesale the fumes emanating from the noisier amingst you." Amingst? Very nice. But I bring it up, because, well, as Berkshire's Charlie Munger, channelling Dr. Robert Cialdini, points out, before buffing the JDAMS, you really really really REALLY oughta calibrate yer head for stuff like...

• Agency costs
• bias from consistency and commitment tendency, including the tendency to avoid or promptly resolve cognitive dissonance. Includes the self-confirmation tendency of all conclusions, particularly expressed conclusions, and with a special persistence for conclusions that are hard-won.
• bias from over-influence by social proof -- that is, the conclusions of others, particularly under conditions of natural uncertainty and stress.

Translation: If wishes were ponies, then beggars would ride. And arsonists would be our heroes.

Washington Post

No Proof Found of Iran Arms Program
Uranium Traced to Pakistani Equipment

Traces of bomb-grade uranium found two years ago in Iran came from contaminated Pakistani equipment and are not evidence of a clandestine nuclear weapons program, a group of U.S. government experts and other international scientists has determined.

"The biggest smoking gun that everyone was waving is now eliminated with these conclusions," said a senior official who discussed the still-confidential findings on the condition of anonymity.

Scientists from the United States, France, Japan, Britain and Russia met in secret during the past nine months to pore over data collected by inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, according to U.S. and foreign officials. Recently, the group, whose existence had not been previously reported, definitively matched samples of the highly enriched uranium -- a key ingredient for a nuclear weapon -- with centrifuge equipment turned over by the government of Pakistan.

Iran has long contended that the uranium traces were the result of contaminated equipment bought years ago from Pakistan. But the Bush administration had pointed to the material as evidence that Iran was making bomb-grade ingredients.

The conclusions will be shared with IAEA board members in a report due out the first week in September, according to U.S. and European officials who agreed to discuss details of the investigation on the condition of anonymity. The report "will say the contamination issue is resolved," a Western diplomat said.

U.S. officials have privately acknowledged for months that they were losing confidence that the uranium traces would turn out to be evidence of a nuclear weapons program. A recent U.S. intelligence estimate found that Iran is further away from making bomb-grade uranium than previously thought, according to U.S. officials...

"Hey gang, let's put on a show!"

If you never saw The Little Rascals or Spanky and Our Gang on TBS reruns, you might not be familiar with the above line.

It's one the little tykes would use when they were trying be all grown-up and Hollywood 'n stuff. It was mildly cute to watch them cobble together stage lights out of rusty old coffee cans. Petey the spotted-eyed dog would patiently sit in his Director's Chair, a ratty old beret perched on top of his head. They made stages out of orange crates and curtains from burlap sacks. And, of course, they sold tickets, usually accepting frogs or cool rocks as legal tender. Ha-ha. Hee-hee.

When grown-ups do it, it's just sad. And the agency costs are a bitch.