Will [CEO] confidence continue to plunge?

Ed Kopko emails that "CEO Confidence has decreased sharply over the last two months. Will CEO confidence rebound as a result of the September Fed cuts? Or, will confidence continue to plunge?"

"Sharply"? "Plunge"? Oh man, let's go look:

Chief Executive Magazine

The Chief Executive magazine CEO Confidence Index, which measures C-Suite confidence in various aspects of the economy from hiring to investing to the overall business climate, continued its record drop in September, falling 10 percent to 130.5 points, the lowest it has been since August 2003. [My bolding - fouro]

The Index, which has experienced the sharpest consecutive decline in its history, is off 23 percent from its high of 169.3 in July, before worries about the credit markets began to take center stage.

"CEOs are very in tune with the requirements of their suppliers, the needs of their customers, as well as with their own ability to carry out a strategy of growth. They remain more concerned that some fundamental aspects of the economy are under stress than many in the investing community. [Also my empahsis - fouro] In particular, our data suggests a continuingly weak hiring environment," said Edward M. Kopko, Publisher & CEO of Chief Executive Group.

Among the five indices measured by the nation’s only monthly CEO Index, the Employment Index experienced the sharpest drop, falling 19 percent to 132.5—30 percent off of its high of 188.9 in July.

...when asked about their future hiring plans, 34 percent of CEOs said they expect hiring to decrease over the next quarter—the highest level since the Index began in 2002—while only 20 percent of those surveyed said they expect employment to increase over the next quarter.

Since August 2003? What's significant about that date?

It's when most of the smart guys and girls looked up at an airport TV for the second time and started to wonder if that "Mission Accomplished," "greeted as liberators" stuff from the "CEO Administration" wasn't just so much 30-60-90 sales forecast bullshit. It is nice to see, however, (bolded passage above) that people who have to labor-cost things and suffer inventory volatility don't also suffer from the wishful thinking of pure financial services types who are heavily vested in not admitting foolishness.