Have U.S. Automakers Built the Wrong Cars at the Wrong Time, Again?

Decent Knowledge@Wharton article on the odd mix of arrogance and learned helplessness that is the US auto industry (many industries?) Executive summary: "Don't blame us, we were only being avaricious, slothful, shortsighted and forgetful."

A snip with it's subhead... Behind the Curve:

The Same Mistake Twice

Should Detroit have seen that "tipping point" coming? "Maybe, probably," says MacDuffie, admitting benefits of hindsight. "When gas prices spiked in 1980, the U.S. was making very big, gas-guzzling vehicles. So they were very vulnerable to competition from the Japanese and European manufacturers who were used to selling [fuel-efficient cars] in a market where gas prices were much higher. So you would think the U.S. automakers, having lived though that experience once, might be guarded about letting that happen again."

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A question more important than whether Detroit should have seen the coming of the tipping point is what the U.S. Big Three and their competitors in Europe and Asia should do now, according to both MacDuffie and Guillen. "The long-term challenge is to develop truly competitive hybrid or hydrogen cars. We need to make the investments now, so that they become available in 15 or 20 years," Guillen suggests. "In the short run, we need to incrementally improve fuel efficiency and help people switch to more efficient cars." Late as they may be, MacDuffie says he is heartened by Detroit's aggressive investments in alternative engine technologies. "I expect eventually to see hybrids offered across every manufacturer's full range of models. One good thing is that they are ... expecting a more permanent shift in consumer demand. So they are actually closing down truck and SUV capacity and working hard on these new technologies."

As the article points out in its close, the one thing that remains is Powerplant and Drivetrain tech as markers of manufacturers worth betting on. What are most domestic makers doing there? Not much. Pontiac, for instance, buys it's engines from--and rents the brains of--Toyota.

But GM sure does have good lobbyists.