You can't calm the markets until you calm the people.

Just saw some tape on MSNBC of Obama speaking at a Univ in Reno, Nevada. Not cool or professorial as so many of the Simple Simons like Chris Matthews love to exaggerate. Just direct. Refreshingly clear and helpful examples of why this matters in ground-level terms.

You can't calm the markets until you calm the people.

Yes, a bit of fireside chat-style explanation as I talked up here, last week. A good thing and none too soon given that the Maverisk© is cursing the sun, the darkness and any available Democrat, cuz, you see, he's about Leadership!™ I hope I can find the tape soon, but I'm sure it will be on the news tonite.

[update: TPM has the story and transcript, still no video]
[update update - video. 29 minutes, but the first 5 or 10 mins give you the feel. check it out]

A snip, showing that clarity not blustery certitude and blame-slinging are what resonate:

...And finally, I said that if American taxpayers are financing this solution, then you should be treated like investors - you should get every penny of your tax dollars back once this economy recovers.

This last part is important, because it's been the most misunderstood and poorly communicated aspect of this entire plan. This is not a plan to just hand over $700 billion of your money to a few banks on Wall Street. If this is executed the right way, then the government will temporarily purchase the bad assets of our financial institutions so that they can start lending again, and then sell those assets once the markets settle down and the economy recovers. If this is managed correctly, we will hopefully get most or all of our money back, or possibly even turn a profit on the government's investment - every penny of which will go directly back to you, the investor. And if we do have losses, I've proposed to institute a Financial Stability Fee on the entire financial services industry so that Wall Street foots the bill - not the American taxpayer. I've also said that if I'm President, I will review the entire plan on the day I take office to make sure that it is working to save our economy and that you are getting your money back.

Even with all these taxpayer protections, I know that this plan is not perfect or fool-proof. No matter how well we manage the government's investments under this plan, we are still putting taxpayer dollars at risk. I know that there are Democrats and Republicans in Congress who have legitimate concerns about this, and I know there are many Americans who share those concerns...

29 minutes. It really was an example of the kind of advice I ignore all the time on this blog: Write to an eighth-grade level, even for Academics and CEOs. Not insulting, just easily understood examples of why your thing or idea matters in easily grasped, ground-level terms.

The host, Andrea Mitchell, played the video, then just sorta went 'ehh.' Not impressed maybe, because Obama didn't kick a puppy or call McaCain a gormless monster. In other words, another forest for the trees moment where she and her ilk do not understand where we are and what needs to be done, and in what order.

You can't calm the markets until you calm the people.

Of course, we got the initial concussion grenade via Paulson as per George Bush's MO: Threaten Finacial Mushroom clouds, that'll get 'em to snap in line. Typically, the grenade in the form of a really big number had the opposite effect. It calmed no one and inflamed many.

You can't calm the people if they don't understand.

But big numbers are not the problem. These fairweather Adam Smiths had no problem with a $1.4 trillion-plus explosion called Medicare Part D, the Prescription Drug bill of 2003. See, that at least had context even if it was a complete anti-competitive to Pharma and Insurance--No volume price negotiation, done deal.

No. It's less about a specific magic numer of billions than it is finding a way to rescue the baby called "trust" from the well. The only way to restore trust--a hybrid of comfort and confidence-- is to give context, to explain how basic this cluster-fuck really is, despite all the high-flown invocations of markets and LIBOR and tranches and whatnot. Today, from what I saw, that was what Obama was doing. He was offering to that group of 5000 or so exactly also what 100, 000, 000 voters are really anxious to hear.

You can't calm the people if you're not calm yourself.

But what is calm? I'd call it the thing that comes from Context, a realization that not knowing what's next or not being fully in control your environmnet is not completely paralysing.

Context is legend in military families. Ours was Air Force. My Wife's is Army. Creating Context is why you train. It's what makes molehills out of mountains and slows down time inside a cockpit while you intuit angles of attack, drag, physics, bullet-drop and energy curves. All the factors I just mentioned don't happen in lazy minutes as you worry your way through the math. They happen instantaneously, parrallel processes that hopefully converge with you being alive and the other guy being a statistic, a kill. They happen because you're not too freaked out to act, too worried to perform deftly. They happen because of training - context. You've been there before, even if just in simulation. The patterns assemble and flow.

If you're good at this, if you can relay this gut level understanding and teach others to internalize the processing, they make you an instructor, just like the did another John. If you're not good at it, they just make you a Squadron Leader, like John McCain.

Context conveys calm. Calm makes mountains manageable. If you provide it, people will love you and do for you. This is true for sailors, hunters, artists and really good office managers. And it's how leaders emerge.

It's true of some fighter pilots too. Just not the one who's currently running for president. His shipmates didn't call him McNasty for nothing.

You can't calm the markets until you calm the people.
You can't calm the people if they don't understand.
You can't calm the people if you're not calm yourself.